Jim’s Global Warming Thread

[jadnashua]

At some point, the issues will become so blatantly obvious that people will have to notice. While there are people that actually care, the messages about what you can do to help are muddled. If you lean one way, the message is there is no global warming, pump more oil, burn more coal. If you lean the other, you try to get people to move towards greener power and conservation.

Remember, wind turbines cause cancer?! If Texas hadn't installed more wind turbines and solar arrays, they'd have not been able to keep up and because they chose not to become part of a regional power grid, if and when something fails, the state might go dark...not a good thing when it's broiling there, or in the winter. Texas also chose not to include any weatherization equipment on their wind turbines that make them work reliably elsewhere including in the far north of the US.

That NOAA chart shows the heat is going up, the duration is longer, and the seasons are extended. The oceans have reached the hottest since we've kept records. The extent of the ice coverage around Antarctica is down 1M sqmi from not that long ago. The Arctic ice coverage is way down, and the old ice is becoming scarce. That cold water drives some very important ocean currents, the disruption is already having consequences by moving normal fisheries around from their historic norms...in some cases, moving things further away, making it uneconomical for some of the smaller fishing boats to make a living, and disrupting the local, previously reliable food source.

I splurge on Kind Crab once in a while, but they've all moved out of their normal range and the price, while always high, is now even higher. Salmon are having trouble, and one fishery off the west coast has been shut down to see if they can recover. We've never had two named tropical storms in June before, and throw in El Niño, we're seeing some of the effects of the higher temperatures. Higher temperatures and the typical rains shifting is making wildfires more common. Those higher temperatures remove moisture from the soil, letting things get even hotter and letting fires burn hotter and more wide-spread.

If you open your eyes, these things start to become more obvious. Yes, weather changes things short-term, but climate is looking at the big picture...people don't like to look at the big picture. Look at the average retirement savings...the more common attitude is what can I get now...who wants to wait and what's good for ME. I was not brought up that way.

[Just In Tile LLC]

I don’t think the let it get so obvious people will be forced to change is a good plan but seems to be the one we are taking which is a shame. I do believe we’ve become more focused on profits at any cost and long term ethics on our impact for future generations as a culture and business practices.

The old saying if we all swept our porch the world would be a clean place has some merit here. It seems there is a lot of working on how to solve the problem but leaving personal responsibility out of the equation. Very odd way to solve the problem if you ask me.

[jadnashua]

The US Congress is nearly split even in both houses...it takes a 60 majority to get most things to even be voted on in the Senate. The big business party makes it really hard to get anything done that even hints at government control. But, look at all of the representatives that are crowing about money being spent in their districts/states from the infrastructure bill that voted against it!

It's really hard to get even critical legislation passed...environmental issues are just too easy to kick down the road, and there's a huge amount of lobbying being done by the oil and gas industry.

People need to evaluate the people put up for Congress and decide who will help with the future. Gut reactions have created some really messy situations.

[jadnashua]

Luckily, at least for me, much of the rain that pelted Vermont wasn't anywhere as intense where I live, but the devastation wasn't really all that far away...too close for comfort. I'm probably 100' above the Merrimack River, so overflowing from that isn't an issue. I"ve had my share of hot temperatures, but nothing like much of the SW and South of the USA has seen in the last couple of weeks.

Nasty weather is just that...shit happens. But, as things warm up, the odds of severe weather go up considerably. 1C increase in temperature can allow about an 8% increase in water vapor content of the air. That increase in moisture content is what allows a storm to become more severe. We'll probably see our fourth named tropical storm this week, but it's far eough out in the Atlantic, so it won't be hitting the USA...but, getting to the fourth named storm usually doesn't happen until mid-August and it's not even mid-July yet.

What is not generally understood is that what is referred to as say a 1:1000 or once in a thousand-year event doesn't really mean literally that it only happens once in a thousand years. What it means is that on any given day, there's a 0.001% chance of it happening. As conditions change, that historic percent chance increases, so those once in 100-year or 1000-years events pop up more and more frequently.

The oceans act as a huge heat sink and absorb a lot of the heat from the sun hitting our little planet. Based on historical records, nearly 50% of the oceans are now experiencing heat waves. In more normal times, that percentage would be in the 10% range. The balance is way off.

[HS345]

The man made global warming crowd has been saying "as things warm up, the odds of severe weather go up considerably" for literally decades. Any projections as to when this will actually occur? Because so far, it hasn't.

[jadnashua]

Well, we had two named tropical storms in June...the first time that's occurred. We've set high temperature records for nearly the last two weeks both in the USA and Europe and Asia. The surface ocean water temperature in southern Florida is about 97F, the highest it has ever been recorded. Flash flooding has killed numerous people in the last few weeks in the USA due to extensive, intense storms. The sea ice coverage in both the Arctic and Antarctic is way down, by over a million square miles from the normal levels this time of year. The Gulf Stream velocity is slower, over 50% of the oceans are considered in a heat stress situation. There was a massive fish kill off of Texas that was attributed to the higher water temperatures which means the water cannot hold as much oxygen, smothering the sealife. A significant one is also expected off of the UK soon as temperatures there are hitting records.

The growing season is about 2-weeks longer than it was just 50-years ago. Ticks that typically die off in severe cold are much more entrenched and diseases like Lyme's disease is moving further north as are malaria and other mosquito borne diseases.

The excessive heat is making wildfires more common and longer lasting. Polar bears are having a big issue as there's so little ice that they typically hunt off of, they're having to learn to hunt other things on land. Penguins are having to swim much further from their nesting areas because their normal food source has moved with the changes in the ice and water, making it harder for them to feed their young.

Weather is one thing - you can expect some big variations, but climate change is the trend, and if you open your eyes, it starts to become obvious - the trend is warmer. Warmer air holds more moisture, which makes for heavier rain when it does occur.

[HS345]

Statistically, severe weather incidents have not increased, verbose talking points notwithstanding.

[cx]

I'll bet statistically the verbose talking points have, Greg.

Jim, I read just recently that the "wobble" of our planet has been found to have altered slightly more than previously anticipated or measured. How "they" might know that, or how it was measured, I don't know, but it makes sense to me that that could have profound effects upon our planet's climate. And I wonder if even variations too small for "they" to measure could have somewhat substantial effects upon our climate.

As for the wildfire frequency and intensity, in this country a great deal of that change can be attributed to mismanagement of the forests, especially the ones owned unlawfully by our federal government. In the wild areas of Canada, I cannot testify. I don't know if some of those forested areas are managed at all, or if so, to what extent.

But hot, dry, and especially windy conditions certainly make fighting those fires more difficult and dangerous. I think there's no question about that. Makes them easier to start, too, which is why they're most apparent in the summer, yes?

In any event, having governments force citizens at gunpoint to buy electric vehicles that are extremely un-green to manufacturer and may not fit their actual transportation requirements doesn't seem to me to be the solution to the problem(s).

But yeah, appears our little globe is getting warmer. We'll adjust or die. Maybe we'll be like dinosaurs and eventually produce fossil fuels for later use on the planet. We could advertise that as a feature and ask everyone to participate voluntarily?

[jadnashua]

FWIW, the UK and a couple of other countries in the last few days have had their wind and solar produce more power than their coal-fired counterparts and produced enough such that the effective 'price' of power became negative. Executing reliable means to store that energy to even out the potential needs is a big deal, and if done, should help minimize a lot of burned fossil fuels.

Everything that interacts to affect the climate is a huge, complex mess and the models used to try to predict the end result of our current activities continues to be updated and more representative to what is turning out to be reality.

Battery technology is rapidly evolving and becoming more suitable for longer-term viability. There has been some significant evolution in extracting lithium that isn't as messy. FWIW, the US has a fair amount of it, but it has not been extracted because of those environmental issues...newer technologies should overcome those problems and will likely start to come on line in the next few years, breaking us from the China control that exists today. There have been some significant results in using some other battery chemistries as well.

[jadnashua]

Georgia is known as the peach state, but to grow peaches, they need at least 850 hours below 45-degrees for the blossoms to set. This past year, they got about 700-hours, and most of the blossoms did not form. Their peach crop went from on average of 130M pounds to just 13M pounds. If you like peaches, things this year are going to be quite expensive and supplies will be tight.

FWIW, the maples in the NE are having a hard time, too. They don't like it that warm, and in late winter, they need below freezing temperatures at night, and during the warmer daytime, causes the sap to flow, so producers can make maple sugar and syrup. With the trees dying, and those left with a much shorter sap run, that industry is moving further north. Once the temperatures stay above freezing, the quality and quantity of sap changes. Lots of the maple syrup sold in the USA actually comes from Canada, but NH, VT, and ME production is way down. WI and MI is, too.

Lots of little things are changing.

[Just In Tile LLC]

I've also looked into maybe our planet is doing some sort of change without our contributing, but for me the evidence points to us. I still agree with CX though, we're gonna have to adapt.

Sad part is even if the world were convinced that we our trashing our planet, I don't see things changing much. Still gonna have people live for today resource wise. Conservationist have told us these things a 100 years ago.

[jadnashua]

Especially in the USA, the me culture versus the us one makes it hard to get anything done, and civility and caring for others is on the back burner.

The bad part of that is, there are ways to treat the environment well without sacrificing much, if anything. It boils down often to pay me now, or pay me later, and the results of waiting can way exceed the pay me now costs.

[HS345]

Originally Posted by Jim

The bad part of that is, there are ways to treat the environment well without sacrificing much, if anything.

And yet, the proposed "solutions" to "global warming" are never that. Not only do they involve great sacrifice, they also involve compulsion. To say nothing of the fact that so called "alternative energy" is anything BUT enviro-friendly.

[jlbos83]

There is room for debate on the friendliness of alternative energy. But we could make considerable cuts by just being smarter about our consumption. We don't all need pickups the size of small countries. We could adjust our thermostats just a little. Turn the water heater down a few degrees. Don't light up the whole word at night. We could drive slower , not 55, I remember those days, but maybe just 5 less that we do now. Put doors on the freezers in the stores. A lot of other things that individually are tiny, would add up to at least start.

The charts and graphs I have been seeing suggest to me that we have perhaps pushed things to the point where equilibrium can't be maintained, and it may be hard to get it back.

[cx]

Originally Posted by Greg

Not only do they involve great sacrifice, they also involve compulsion.

And that's one of the largest parts of the problem to my thinking. Having bureaucrats, both elected, and even worse, un-elected, who may or may not actually know anything about the problem, given the power to compel the rest of the citizenry to do what they decree is the best solution to the problem. And when you consider that the US population makes up what, maybe 4 percent of the world population, that sort of thing makes even less sense. Yes, we're (USA) major consumers of materials and major producers of various pollutants, but we're not gonna solve any of the perceived problems alone, regardless the draconian measures proposed by some of our politicians and "environmental groups."

Originally Posted by Jeff

But we could make considerable cuts by just being smarter about our consumption.

Hear, hear!

And the same could be said about our fresh water usage.