Jim’s Global Warming Thread

[jadnashua]

We've had satellites up for about 40-years that can measure all sorts of things. One of them that was hypothesized in the 1960's is that the upper atmosphere would contract, cool, and the ozone layer would collapse at least seasonally. We helped the ozone hole over Antarctica by banning some of the chemicals that contributed to it, but that is not the only thing. The 40B tons of CO2 we add per year can also affect the ozone layer.

A study recently published has proven that hypothesis seems correct. You can read the article, but it's not particularly good. One of the mildly good things is that the retraction of the atmosphere put less drag on satellites, so they can stay up longer while using less maneuvering fuel, but it also means that the space junk stays up longer before a decaying orbit causes them to burn up, meaning that things are at more risk. There are tens of thousands of pieces of debris in orbit 4" or greater. A lot of that was thanks to the idiots in China that decided to blow up one of their defunct satellites to prove to themselves and the world that that they could, but we added a bunch over the years on our own. The biggest potential issues are the potential loss of the ozone layer affecting the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. THere are a lot of people, primarily in Europe that be affected. The weather issues are also part of it as it interacts with the jet stream, which ca affect things in the entire northern hemisphere, and we've seen some of that already. Note, most of those satellites have either been decommissioned or will be shortly, and there are no current plans to replace them, so monitoring them won't be happening, or give us advanced warnings or status of what's happening there.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-uppe...mate-concerns/

[jadnashua]

The San Andreas fault in Southern California hasn't 'moved' much in over 300-years. Analysis of the area seems to indicate that it has let go on a larger scale about every 180-years on average, so is wildly overdue. Not that you could set your watch to that, but the tectonic plates up the line have been moving, thus putting more stress on the locked portion.

While there are a lot of theories why, a recent one seems to be likely. The Salton Sea has been shrinking for ages since the cities in SoCal have been diverting water through aqueducts there, versus its natural course to keep the sea level up. The recent study says that the weight of the Salton Sea when full pushed one plate down, while allowing the other to move through less pressure on it. The water also percolated into the ground to help lubricate the material, allowing it to move easier. The prolonged drought out west has lowered the groundwater and helped keep things locked up. This past winter's high snow cover is allowing a slight increase in the water level, and some of it will get into the ground. This might be enough to unleash the tension that's been building up over the last 300-years. In geologic timeframe, soon is not the same as what humans perceive of soon, but it bears watching.

At some point, that area will move to equalize the current tension between the two sheets. In this case, a wetter year or more may help it happen sooner rather than later. La Niño has the potential to change the weather out west (well, the whole continent's), but that situation's impacts on the weather are trends, not an absolute, and we're not sure it will happen this summer, but signs are moving in that direction.

Lots of places saw drier weather and higher temperatures this spring and as a result, Canada is seeing an unusually high number of fires. The smoke from those is impacting not only Canada, but a decent portion of the USA. It has caused ground stops at some airports (basically, the airports became closed) because the smoke limited visibility like a heavy fog, and millions of people are experiencing unhealthy air, so many outdoors activities have been cancelled. People with respiratory problems are at heavy risk, so people are being advised to stay indoors. Personally, I can smell the smoke in the air in Southern New Hampshire, hundreds of miles from the sources. The areas on fire had been a fairly significant carbon sink, but the over 160 fires going on are releasing a huge amount of carbon back into the air that had bee stored for ages. Volunteers from numerous countries are helping to control and hopefully put out those fires, but available resources are mostly limited to helping preserve infrastructure rather than tackling the larger fires. Canada is huge, but sparsely populated. Plus, many of those areas don't have easy road access or airports to move people and equipment around.

[jadnashua]

Officially, El Nino has begun.

This usually causes winds that create wind shear making it harder for hurricanes to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, but those areas are seeing record breaking high water temperatures so they still can occur as they did during the last cyclic event. The rising temperatures throw a new wrinkle into the equation.

In the last weeks, record temperatures have been set in Siberia with readings over 100F. We have recorded reliable readings for only about 70-years there. China has recorded over 111F.

It's rare for where I live in New Hampshire to see values over 90F this early in the year but it has happened more than once this year. This is looking like it may continue to set records. Unfortunately many places are seeing record highs that can't afford a/c. The livable zones on the planet are moving away from the equator and the world is not ready for it.

Plankton are probably the largest living mass on the Earth. One thing I learned today is that their metabolism changes from plant like that uses light for photosynthesis to animal like that outputs CO2 based on temperature. We are getting close to that tipping point as the average ocean temperature rises. FWIW, the plankton switch to eating bacteria. The oceans have been a huge buffer that has sequestered a lot of the CO2 we've released, and slowed the rise in the atmosphere. If that stops, changes will accelerate rapidly and it would be really hard to reverse the effects.

[jadnashua]

A peer reviewed study out of California discusses the number of acres of wildfires burned seems a direct correlation with the temperature. The warmer the weather, the more acres that burned. Now some of that may be attributed to forest management practices but those have not changed for a long period.

The hottest years had the largest area burned.

[jadnashua]

During the summer, the waters off of Western Africa gradually become warmer and usually peak late September. Right now, those waters are as warm as they typically are in September. This could portend a messy hurricane season. Multiple things may be combining to cause this. The winds off the Sahara Desert have been weaker bringing less dust that blocks some sunlight. The gyre that brings some colder waters from the Arctic has slowed. El Nino is warning waters and winds along the equator to the west. And we continue to pump more CO2 into the atmosphere. Multiple factors that complicate the understanding of the situation. It's too early to tell how this hurricane season will play out. Could be messy.

[mullet]

El nino creates more wind sheer and keeps more hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic and Gulf.

The Co2 in the atmosphere is .038%

The Oceans make over 70% of all the Oxygen on planet Earth.

[jadnashua]

Originally Posted by Chuck

The Oceans make over 70% of all the Oxygen on planet Earth.

Maybe so, but keep in mind that as the oceans heat up, they cannot hold as much dissolved gas. Note the big fish kills that have occurred around the world and the close to home one off of Texas with dead fish washing up on the beaches. The level 4 water temperatures around parts of the UK, if they persist, could also lead to some major die offs of various aquatic life. In some places, the water temperatures are 9F higher than averages.

Also note that a recent discovery regarding plankton...once the water temperature reaches a certain point, they go from plant-like using CO2, to animal like exhaling CO2. Reach that tipping point and things become really nasty.

[jadnashua]

1896 was the first year Mt Rainier's glaciers were mapped. Since then the area covered has decreased by 52% as of 2021 and is rapidly diminishing Based on analysis of satellite views. Around the world, over two billion people rely on the water from glaciers for drinking, agriculture and transportation. My Rainier holds more glaciers than all others combined in the Cascades. Most of the glaciers on the south face are gone.

Just another observation about how things are changing.

[makethatkerdistick]

Anecdotally observed, a 100+ deg. heatwave is hitting us in a few days here in North Texas. Usually, those 100+ days are common much later between mid-July and August. Texas is forecast to have record electricity demand.

[Tool Guy - Kg]

Seems to take longer into the year to get to the warm part of summer around these parts. We seem to finally be there.

[jadnashua]

The first world wide elevation measurements were conducted in 2000 by a radar system in the space shuttle. This produced some useful but often flawed results. Radar has trouble distinguishing between say the treetops versus ground or building roofs verses adjacent ground levels.

This data is being updated by LIDAR on a satellite launched in 2018. What has started to come out of this is that as much as 3-5x more land area is subject to sealeval rises by the end of the century. Many of these areas are densely populated river deltas in areas least able to make any changes or afford the more costly, but more accurate low level LIDAR studies. A recent study estimated that at least 132M people would likely be displaced.

If the global warming ends up increasing the expected sea level rise, that number of people and area impacted grows significantly. As things stand, king and spring tides along with storm surge are causing some significant damage and deaths where we are now.

[VapourSnow]

I believe the recent Nature Communications publication puts the number of people affected by a 1m sea level rise by 2100 at 410 million https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23810-9

[jadnashua]

Pumping water out causes subsistence, but the bad thing about it is that once the soil is compacted by this process, if you try to recharge the aquifer, either naturally because it rains more, or you try pumping in water, the land doesn't tend to rebound...IOW, once it compacts, it stays there. This is a big deal in some places. Similar things happen when you pump oil out of the ground.

What this current El Niño will do is still up in the air, but it does tend to make places warmer. The high-level winds tend to limit storm development into severe storms, but it really is problematic...the more heat stored, the more energy there is to create heavier rainstorms, even if it doesn't escalate to a hurricane.

FWIW, when I lived in El Paso, the wells that supplied the city often were at least 4000' deep. By analyzing the isotopes in that water, they determined that the water there had last been on the surface about 10,000 years ago. That's a long time for water to migrate down! And, the city is pumping it out far faster than it can be replenished. The Colorado River's flow is way down along with its reservoirs, but so also are those along the Rio Grande. That whole part of the country is in a world of hurt when it comes to increased population and the water needed to support it.

[jadnashua]

The last few days have set records for the earth in highest temperatures since we've had satellites that cover the entire planet (40-years or so). Not a huge timespan, but indicative of the trend. This chart compiled by NOAA is also revealing.

[Just In Tile LLC]

Growing up I remember watching commercials on saving water, things such as turn off your water while brushing your teeth, shorten your shower timespan. Alot of that has stuck with me, I am conscious of the resources I use...now that I am a father I do the classic turn off the lights as I walk around the house that have been left on even though my all led bulbs probably use less then 2 incandescent bulbs before if most my lights were on.

Point being I don't see much out there on practical ways to educate newer generations on conservation concepts. It's more about how you can be a millionaire at 20.

While I'm all for monitoring and reporting these changes our planet is going through, without any practical advice to people (even though personally I believe big business is more responsible for our current situations) to take action, what do you think a good way to address the problem in a way that leads to change Jim?