Weather

[jadnashua]

Right now, there are 154 ships waiting to pass through the Panama Canal. They're essentially holding in place because of a drought that is keeping the water level too low for safe passage.

40% of the US container traffic runs through that canal, and delays can mess up supply chains while also raising costs if alternate routes become more the norm (offloading on the coast, and using trucks and trains to move to the next available port). One good hurricane might solve that, but El Niño is putting a damper on them somewhat because it's disrupting the upper atmosphere winds. The increased water temperatures in the oceans may end up causing a more intense hurricane season and the updated NOAA hurricane prediction has bumped the likely number of storms higher. El Niño normally causes a decrease, which was how the original projections were made. Nobody really knows for sure.

Panama usually gets a fair amount of rain, but one of the effects of global warming is the shifting of weather patterns. Normally, higher temperatures would allow higher water vapor content, which could produce heavier rain...it may yet, but the timing is off.

Going around the tip of South America is generally not an option as first, it adds many thousands of miles to the trip, and the weather there is often treacherous. It is the middle of winter there, which doesn't help, either. Container ships could take on a lot of snow and ice in the trip, encounter iceburgs, and the potential added weight with all of the containers stacked on deck could make it unstable. Air freight just isn't a viable option, both since the volume and weight needed, and the much higher costs. Maybe for some small, light parts, but not most things without significantly raising prices which nobody wants.

[jadnashua]

Other than maybe a future hurricane or tropical storm, most of the rainy season is over. The Mississippi River basin has had a deficiency of rain this season, and with the higher temperatures, more of the water evaporates along the way as well. This has combined to make barge traffic on the river to have to limit traffic and volumes. A lot of the grain grown in that area makes its way to the export markets via barges, and there's a big backlog on the more expensive rail cars to take over the volume.

But, that is not potentially the bigger issue for the most people. Lower flow of the river and the warmer, expanding water in the Gulf means that salt water is moving upstream in more volume and further.

The US Army Corp of Engineers is trying to raise a barrier on the bottom of the river, but that has two issues...the river is already low, and raising the bottom to try to slow the advance of the heavier salt water can have an impact on river commerce, but by not doing it, many of the areas that depend on the river for potable water for their survival can be affected. If things don't change, that creeping salinity may hit the water intakes for larger areas like New Orleans, they think, by the end of the month. There's no cheap way to remove salt from water, and anything that can takes time to install. The areas are trying to stockpile bottled water, but that's quite expensive in itself, and not a good long-term solution.

So, here's hoping the area gets some rain, the river rises for long-term, but it does not look promising.

[jadnashua]

Continued drought in Panama has caused the canal authority to lower the maximum number of ships able to traverse the canal again today...normal was 36-37/day, it's now down to 31 and the maximum draft is still reduced. They're also limiting the use of the larger locks, but with the reduced draft, there may not be as many of those trying.

All of this raises the costs of shipping anything and slows the response times for suppliers.

[jadnashua]

Total streamflow across the Mississippi River was last observed at 893,147 cfs, and is expected to yield approximately 1,771,536 acre-ft of water today (Oct 3, 2023); about 69% of normal. River levels are low and may signify a drought. Average streamflow for this time of year is 1,293,649 cfs, with recent peaks last observed on 2019-06-11 when daily discharge volume was observed at 7,577,143 cfs.

So, below average for this time of year, and way below the peak. It will take a lot of rain across the whole basin to bring the levels back to normal.

A huge amount of commerce flows along the river, including a significant amount of the grain crop, with the lower water levels, inhibiting the maximum loads any barge can carry, and with the narrower and shallower river channel, impacting the amount of traffic as well. This ends up increasing the costs of those products.

[cx]

Yep, having a problem there. I'm giving odds that sometime within the next five years we'll be reading about all the damage being caused by flooding in the Mississippi river drainage.

Just as our serious drought here in south Texas will usually be ended in some serious flooding. Been quite a while since we had a really good flood, but I'm confident that I'll see another and I don't have all that many years left.

Ol' Momma Nature's like that. Always been a rather moody lady. And she's never been known to take prisoners.

[PC7060]

Yes, remember the big floods on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers in 1993? What a mess and we are still dealing with the invasive carp that got loose when the flood overtopped the breeding ponds.

[jadnashua]

Over the weekend, NH's Mt Washington got its first snowfall of the season...areas above 5kft saw 1" of snow...not a huge amount, but it's early yet. For many years, the weather observatory on top of the mountain had claimed the highest ever recorded wind gust, but that was superseded a few years ago...it's still impressive, though. Mt Washington is known for its changing, and sometimes nasty weather where they've recorded snow every day of the year over the time they've been there (obviously, not every day of every year!, but on each date over the various years involved).

If you're ever in the area, take in the cogwheel rail trip to the top. Interesting story behind that...the guy who built it petitioned the NH state legislature for permission...they granted it to him for $1 or something similar, believing it was impossible because of the steep grade...a couple of years later, he'd invented the cogwheel railroad and steam engine. It became a big attraction, and for years, similar trains popped up to climb many mountains around the world. Today, the only other one still operating in the USA is that on Pike's Peak, but they still exist in other places around the world (I had the opportunity to ride one in Germany decades ago).

https://www.mountwashington.org/weat...s/default.aspx

[jadnashua]

Those areas could see up to 2' of snow this week and later temperatures dropping to 15-35 degrees below normal so time to get your winter stuff out and stock your fridge!

This in contrast to where I live in NH that could see temperatures rising to the mid-70's by the weekend, and some areas might hit 80...way warmer than average for this time of the year. I'm not complaining...seems I may go another week or two before I have to turn my heat on! But, extremes are becoming more of a 'normal' situation. Changes to the normal are becoming a definite pattern.

[John Bridge]

The highs in Central Texas are going to be in the forties and fifties next week -- coming down from the eighties and nineties.

[cx]

After months of drought and low temperatures in the upper 70s on the cool nights, forecast is for rain and 36 degrees tonight. And a high of 40 tomorrow.

Can we please have some more of that there global warming down here?

[jadnashua]

Don't confuse weather with climate...

[Davy]

Kelly, Hang tight, I ordered some more for you. The arrival date is in July.

[cx]

Sounds like the old Orwellian take on things, Davy, positing that everyone gets about the same amount of ice; the rich get it in summer and the poor get it in winter. I have no doubt you'll come through on your promise.

[Davy]

Yeah, the deliveries are always on time, give or take a few weeks. About like the mail service.

[John Bridge]

Weather/climate/whatever. Y'all Yankees keep your damn cold weather up north where it belongs.