Weather

[jadnashua]

Read an article today that might be of interest.

In 2019, the US put up a satellite that has both LIDAR and RADAR capabilities that was positioned to monitor the ice in the Arctic. Over just those nearing 3-years, they found a few things of interest:
- the previous estimate of ice thickness was over-estimated...i.e., the average ice thickness is thinner than original thoughts
- the average ice thickness decreased by about 1.5' in the time since they were first able to measure it over a wide area with the new sensors
- if things continue at the same rate, the Arctic Ocean will be totally ice free by the end of the summer in 2035 or so. Never in recorded human history that we know of has this happened before, but certainly has happened before.

The cold water coming out of the Arctic east of Greenland is a critical component of the gyre that powers the Gulf Stream. Loss of all that ice and the resulting warming could slow or stop that gyre, affecting the climate of much of the eastern US and most of western Europe, and Africa, too.

But, climate change doesn't exist..we'll see, but many already have. We have not had the tools to monitor things this closely, or the people studying what's going on until recently where their focus has been improved. What many thought was true has been found to be inaccurate, but many stick to what was thought to be true even a few years ago when more and more evidence points to a different situation.

[jerrymlr1]

Thanks for the globull warming bs update Jim.

[jadnashua]

We've been keeping records on the ocean temperature and various other things for decades...they are all trending upwards.

Last week, both Antarctica and the Arctic hit seasonal record warm temperatures, in Antarctica, it hit 70F warmer than normal. A part in Siberia hit over 100F. The permafrost under the Arctic is melting, releasing huge amounts of methane and creating sinkholes the size of city blocks. The hurricane season is getting longer, and there are more severe storms. Birds are nesting earlier and laying their eggs sooner. Last week, a section of ice broke off of Antarctica the size of NYC in what had been one of the more stable areas of the ice sheet. That doesn't raise the sea level since it's already floating, but it means less resistance for the glaciers on land so they can move faster, and those do raise the sea level.

Yes, single day excursions are weather, not climate, but pair multiple ones and more severe examples together and they make a trend over time, which is climate.

[jerrymlr1]

Originally Posted by Jim

The hurricane season is getting longer, and there are more severe storms.

More bs propaganda Jim. The hurricanes have been fewer and not so strong in the last 10-15 years.

What do you expect the climate to do? Stay the same forever? Greenland was once much far warmer than it is today. Plenty of evidence of that. Think the Vikings were complaining about the climate? Climate changes over and over and over. Up and down. Nothing is ever the same. Even the hurricane patterns.

This bears worth repeating. If there truly is some climate change due to pollution then you should be all over the chinese and indian governments about their massive pollution. Not the American citizen. The US has cleaned up it's act in the last 50 years. I remember driving into LA from the east about 25 years ago. The visible air pollution was thick and dark. My eyes burned as I drove down towards the valley. It's not like that today.

50% of the water in china is not usable for anything at all. Industry can't use it it's so polluted. That's not the case here is it?

Simple fact Jim. Plants survive and thrive on CO2. They produce the oxygen that we all breathe. So the ocean rises a billionth of an inch every year. It's not because of my diesel truck. Climate changes. Fearmongering from the media doesn't.

[Mathman]

Jerry, do you have a source for your claim:"More bs propaganda Jim. The hurricanes have been fewer and not so strong in the last 10-15 years. "
Cause it sure doesn't match the data I can find.

[jerrymlr1]

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/downward/

In summary, contrary to many expectations that globally tropical cyclones may be becoming more frequent and/or more intense due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, regionally the Atlantic basin has in recent decades seen a significant trend of fewer intense hurricanes and weaker cyclones overall. In addition, the maximum intensity reached in each year has shown no appreciable change. These trends have been accentuated in recent hurricane seasons - 1991 to 1994 - with the lowest frequencies recorded of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes in the 50 year period of accurate counts. These decreases have primarily been manifested in the deep tropical latitudes (i.e. equatorward of 25°N excluding all of the Gulf of Mexico) and the countries surrounding the Caribbean Sea have particularly benefited as five years with no hurricanes in the region is the longest hurricane-free span since the turn of the century.

I can tell you also that living here I have not witnessed anything unusual, short of fear propaganda. But that's not really unusual.

[jerrymlr1]

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat...urricanes.html

And...

[Mathman]

Your data is nearly 20 or nearly 40 years old.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/link-...and-hurricanes

[jerrymlr1]

Sure Kirk. One link shows up til 2004. The other up to 2020. Hurricanes wer more destructive from the late 1800s thru early 1900s than they are now. The chart shows it.

Your link is an opinion piece on a study. What study? Believe what you want.

[Mathman]

The one up to 2020 talks about hurricanes hitting mainland America. We are not the only country that gets hit by Atlantic hurricanes. I don't want to believe what I want. I want to believe what the science says. I understand that what science says can change. It isn't because science is wrong, it is because that is what science is and what science does. It changes when it receives new information. I try to also.
Good luck to you.

[jadnashua]

The Smithsonian seems to report the sea level rise is much more than some think and expressed earlier. https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/an...a701345cd1385b and the rate of change has risen faster as we get further into this.

The CO2 levels over the ages changes, too, and ice cores taken in Antarctica that cover over 600K years show that the levels have risen far faster in the last 180-years or so than they had in any corresponding time in those previous 600K years. Now, what's changed? The industrial revolution had us burning lots of fossil fuels to power industry, keep our homes warm, and provide transportation, along with other things.

The glacier that filled Glacier Bay in Alaska has retreated from beyond the mouth of the bay to over 65 miles inland since 1750's when it was first recorded. Last summer, for the first time, they recorded rain on the top of the highest glacier in Greenland.

2020 was only the second time the US has needed to use the Greek alphabet to name hurricanes. The first time was in 2005.

Extreme weather that was called things like once in a hundred years are occuring multiple times in a decade in some places now.

Heating and cooling degree days are both trending towards warming weather. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicato...78b49c2b004607

We've found recently that the simple act of glacier meltwater falling to the bottom of the glacier raises the temperature enough through friction to cause them to melt from beneath and that is at a far greater rate than any previous models have estimated. Things change, science learns new things, what we thought was true, we now think isn't because of this new data.

If you have an open mind, you can find all sorts of recent studies that make it look very much like global warming is a certainty. Now, how fast and how far is still up as an unknown models are only as good as the data that is fed into them and as we learn more, they get updated, but it's looking worse and worse as there's more things happening that we just didn't know were involved...if you have an open mind, you'd probably realize this. The ocean actually absorbs about 30% of the CO2. This does a few things, it makes the ocean more acidic, meaning some of the stuff there just can no longer live. Shellfish cannot maintain a shell once it reaches a certain level, corals bleach (check out what's happening in the Great Barrier Reef) and die, and if anyone's noticed, the depth and extent of sea ice in the Arctic is way down and thinner. https://www.noaa.gov/education/resou...8905a17e984d36 This makes the whole area darker, which means it absorbs more heat. The Gulfstream is dependent on the lighter, warmer water rising, and the cold water from the east of Greenland falling, to help draw the flow and rate in the stream up. While the warmer water is just getting warmer, the cold water is decreasing, and that has caused the flow rate to slow at least since they started to measure it in 2004. https://www.livescience.com/gulf-str...e656180d1f424e

Yes, climate has natural cycles. Animals adapt. Those cycles took a long time and were gradual. We've not been able to detect any time in history that things have changed as fast as they are now. The only thing that's different is man pumped lots of CO2 into the atmosphere. Now, the lots of methane were' releasing isn't helping, but that doesn't stick around as long as CO2.

What we thought we knew, isn't always right once you learn new things.

Lots of people still believe a shower liner, flat on the floor is fine. Screws into the liner on the curb are no problem if you put some silicone on them. You don't need a second layer of ply for natural stone. CBU on the floor works just fine without thinset underneath it. The list goes on. We've learned lots of stuff over time. If you don't adapt and learn, you continue to make mistakes. None of us alive today will bare the full results of climate change if things keep going as they appear to be, but our grandchildren will. There's a few islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans that people that have lived there for centuries are abandoning because they get flooded where that didn't happen before...been occupied for millennia. Jakarta is moving its capitol city because it gets flooded during high tide too often to sustain a viable function. Lots of places in the USA have had flooding caused by high tides and significant storms (Like Miami, NYC, Boston, etc.). Look at what happened in Germany last year.

[John Bridge]

The glaciers that were near the roadways and the ocean when I was in Alaska in 1959 were barely visible from those same vantage points when I last visited in 2011. Global warming is reality. What is causing it I'm not sure of.

[Autoplay]

Where does the “flipping of the poles” magnetic wise,fit into the equation of this topic((‘if it does etc?)). From a solar system,and universe perspective,our earth/planet,works within a 22,000 year cycle,roughly.

As far as the here and now,we fluctuate within a 16-22 year cycle,within the ebbs and tides/temperature,of the ocean currents,and weather. We still another 3 years or so from seeing major storms in the gulf/Atlantic,that will effect the easterners.(imo)

Cause and effect can be related to a lot of things(besides the recent releasing of off gassing). It’s written in the rocks/iron,over time.

[jadnashua]

The last flip was like 780,000 years ago, but can vary from 10k to 50m years. There does not seem to be any pattern to it.

THe sunspot cycle peaks about every 11-years, and, if I remember, we are approaching the next maximum.

We narrowly missed a coronal mass ejection recently. If one of those ended up directed at earth, it could mess things up, potentially taking out a bunch of satellites in the process.

Keep in mind, man and his modern tools haven't been around for more than a blip in the age of the earth, and there's still lots to learn. A few of the satellites that are designed to measure some of the things we now think are important, haven't been up there all that long. Plus, it takes more than a few years of data to detect a pattern, and even the analysis takes time, so we're always behind. Then, from what's learned, it takes time to build up a new projection model, and more years to help determine if it's accurate or not. In those intervening years, more discoveries are made, meaning more changes are required for the model to more closely represent reality. It's a complex, interrelated situation, but the longer we look at things, the more it appears that things are moving faster than previous estimates, and all in the same direction...it's getting warmer and weather extremes are becoming more common as a result. This can be seen by how often and how far the polar vortex moves, producing blocking and forcing extremes where we have not observed them before. Those extreme temperature variations cause higher winds and more turbulent weather as things interact.

Confusing weather with climate can lead you wrong. A cold day in winter doesn't mean it's not averaging warmer, nor does a cool day in summer mean it's not getting warmer, either. We're getting more heat spells, and they are longer. Lots of places that had regularly been getting plenty of snow now tend to need snow making machines to have reliable skiing. Note how many corpses are being found of extinct animals in the permafrost as it melts. A man in Switzerland, saber toothed tigers, wooly mammoths and other carcasses have been discovered in the last few years as things melt.

This page shows the number of days where the night-time temperature didn't drop below 70-degrees for Boston and Milton Massachusetts...the Boston results are at Logan airport, which is mostly surrounded by the bay, while Milton is a smaller town south of Boston further inland.

[CaliGrown]

Dang! Good thing we can always trust the media to not be absolutely biased or lie and that science and peer-reviews remain untainted by the influence of money and power.
That aside, the weather in CA has been wetter this winter and we’re still getting rain fall down in the valley and snow up in the sierras. Improved from last year, all Farmers here are happy like the CA cows, minus the price hikes in fertilizer, fuel, substantial inflation and extreme taxation.