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Unread 06-02-2008, 06:34 PM   #1
Davestone
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Economic recovery

Okay, i think we are halfway into this economic problem,WHATEVER you want to call it.No Monday morning quarterbacking. Let's hear what is going to bring us out of this housing slump and why.Let's have specifics and times, and then we'll see who the economic braniacs are. My time line is: this year will drag on throught the summer and be worse by the beginning of school.There will slowly be a rising of interest rates, a few natural disasters,hurricanes and such to spur some building,but by and large there will be no single thing to turn this around it will be a gradual turning around of attitudes,so by 18 months from now things will begin to turn around,there will be an end to the war in sight,and gas prices will come down in 6 months.
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Unread 06-02-2008, 08:09 PM   #2
tilerite
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First, the housing market, which started this ball a rollin, will need to recover. Second, these ridiculous oil prices need to drop back near the $3 range. I'm hoping the housing market begins a turnaround within a year.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 11:26 AM   #3
Davestone
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Well, Rick, we know who the guys with big ba..errr brains are don't we?
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Unread 06-03-2008, 02:29 PM   #4
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I think the baby boomers have bought their last “larger” house and will begin selling to move into a smaller homes. Utility prices will continue to rise dramatically and it will cost a small fortune to heat larger homes. The Generation X group, have been forced to live on dual income, their savings rate is extremely low and they want be able to purchase larger and larger homes.

All said, this will drive prices down for the foreseeable future, especially if you take out inflation. Because of this, we will never see the housing market like it was. 80 year olds remember when housing prices depreciated year after year… not appreciated. We probably will see a return of this.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 03:34 PM   #5
ceramictec
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Oil went down today $3.39.
a few of the big commodities traders are short on oil.
it will drop to about $120 and if it breaks below the support of $120
from what they are saying we might see it go down to $110.
but it can for no reason trade back up to $129.

Bernake is also saying the Dollar is strong and he doesn't think the Fed's will cut rates again.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 04:55 PM   #6
tilerite
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Well, Rick, we know who the guys with big ba..errr brains are don't we?
That explains this nasty headache. C'mon Dave, give me a break. I was getting ready to go to bed when I posted that, after spending most of the day tearing out a mud-bathroom by myself. I wanted to write more but couldn't muster the energy.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 06:44 PM   #7
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getting back to my post above:

Oil went down today $3.39.
a few of the big commodities traders are short on oil.
it will drop to about $120 and if it breaks below the support of $120
from what they are saying we might see it go down to $110.
but it can for no reason trade back up to $129.


heres a chart I made of the Daily Oil Futures prices.

you can see the recent drop. we need to break through the GREEN line at $120-$122 and break support,
then we might head down to the RED line for support there at $110, if it bounces of the green line and
goes up, we are in for what happened at the AQUA line......another run up in oil.

traders trade by support & resistance, news, etc.

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Unread 06-03-2008, 06:53 PM   #8
Davestone
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Rick, i meant that you and i were the only ones going out on a limb foretelling the future. Hey you guys don't turn this into oil prices i want an economic forecast, i want something i can use to guide my boat through the bad waters.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 06:53 PM   #9
Dan the Man
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You made a chart for the daily Oil prices? What do you do for a living mate?
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Unread 06-03-2008, 07:11 PM   #10
ceramictec
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Quote:
i want something i can use to guide my boat through the bad waters.
if Oil keeps going up people will barely be able to get to work let alone go fishing.

Quote:
You made a chart for the daily Oil prices? What do you do for a living mate?
I have done forex trading for years on the side.
really small accounts.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 07:14 PM   #11
Dan the Man
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Wow - well done,

I'd love get into that more seriously. Any tips / websites you'd recommend?
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Unread 06-03-2008, 07:36 PM   #12
MHI
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"80 year olds remember when housing prices depreciated year after year… not appreciated. We probably will see a return of this."

I do know this for sure, God isn't making any more land. Housing prices will go up again, and they will keep going up. Ask the 80 year olds how much they payed for their house, and then ask them if it appreciated, or depreciated.
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Unread 06-03-2008, 07:40 PM   #13
Dan the Man
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You're right there Matt.

The trouble ins't the 'where's the land going to come from' it's the 'where's the money going to come from to pay for it when we're being screwed left right and centre'.

I think Mr Stock Market up there ^^^ has the right idea. Follow and invest in these companies that are getting richer from our daily life.

Come on Robin Hood, where are you?

God: if there was one he'd have given us either sense to not cause this mess or enough land for us to learn for ourselves I feel.

Perhaps it's the side of the evil forces that are the minority but are managing to sway us holy ones?
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Unread 06-03-2008, 08:12 PM   #14
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Markets will start turning around after November, if'n ya get my drift..
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Unread 06-03-2008, 08:21 PM   #15
ceramictec
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thats what I hear too Frank....go figure.

Quote:
I'd love get into that more seriously. Any tips ......
don't do it, it's very tough and the big dogs will chew you up fast.
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