Jim’s Global Warming Thread

[jadnashua]

Panama Canal operators have had to restrict the draft of ships. On average, each 1' of restriction of draft to prevent the ships from running aground, means a ship must limit their cargo by in the order of 300-350 containers...this raised the cost of transit across the lower number of containers, meaning that it costs more to move them, raising prices for all of the products down the line. While it varies, they've had to restrict the ship's draft by up to 6', or nearly 2000 fewer containers on a ship.

You can laugh all you want, but the situation is real. It has real effects. 40% of the cargo across the world goes through the Panama Canal...the problem has been getting worse for the last two decades. The water level in the primary lake that serves as the reservoir for the locks in the canal is down, putting stress on the whole system.

[HS345]

Here ya go, send him all your money. Don't be a slacker.

https://www.climaterealityproject.or...eality-project

[cx]

Don't think so. Same Al Gore who was on the climate change bandwagon back in the '70s, but then "they" were predicting the beginning of a new ice age. Never mind what change ten thousand years can make, that was only forty years ago.

I'm all in favor of scientific evaluation of everything, but I'm not in favor of some of the less-than-scientific extremism afoot today.

Some of the points Jim has made throughout this thread simply cannot be overlooked, such as the most recent one about the Panama Canal using more water than the current weather conditions can provide, or that some larger ice masses are diminishing, but blaming it all on driving fossil fuel powered automobiles seems a bit unrealistic and even more unrealistic is thinking that forcing everyone to buy an electric vehicle will solve the problem.

Politicians are certainly not the answer. Especially when I don't think we have properly framed the questions.

[jadnashua]

September 10th saw the peak sea ice around Antarctica and it was about 1M square kilometers less than the previous record set in the 1980's. As spring starts there, the sea ice will start to melt, reaching a low sometime in February or March. We have only had reliable whole area data since the first satellites went up in 1979, but historically, these melting situations and ice extent is showing the ice coverage decreasing. Seawater absorbs the sun's energy much more than the reflective sea ice. Eastern Antarctica saw a historic heat wave earlier this year of 70 degrees above normal. Variations are expected, but we've never recorded one that large.

[jadnashua]

The Woods Hole Oceanographics Institute and the University of Miami recently completed a study on the available 40-years of data on the Gulf Stream. They found that in that time, the volume of warm water transported by that 'system' decreased 4% with a 99% confidence that it is not just a coincidence, i.e., 99% confidence that it is climate related.

This affects most of the area surrounding the northern Atlantic Ocean.

While over 90% of the world's oceans this year experienced an aquatic heatwave, the transport of that heat is a critical part of the weather-related events around that basin.

Part of that current driver is cold water flowing south off the eastern edge of Greenland from the Arctic. As the polar ice sheet's extent has been decreasing, and the volume of melt water from its glaciers has a different density, the combination of all those factors plays into slowing the current. This year's minimum (final results not in quite yet) appears to be about 2Msqkm less than the average for the period we have good information - since 1979). The decrease in polar ice also means the water absorbs a significant amount more of the solar radiation energy rather than being reflected by the ice (albedo - the reflectivity of a surface).

The primary drivers of the Gulf Stream are the warm waters from the Gulf area flowing north and the cold waters coming out of the Arctic around eastern Greenland flowing south on the eastern side of the Atlantic. Change either of those (and both are, so the combination is more troubling), and the impact shows up. The differences in temperature and density along with the Coriolis effect are what causes that system to rotate clockwise.

[cx]

Originally Posted by Jim

The differences in temperature and density along with the Coriolis effect are what causes that system to rotate clockwise.

Seems to me ol' Coriolis would want those ocean systems to rotate counterclockwise on our side of the equator, Jim. Not so?

[Mathman]

Nope, CX, Northern hemisphere is clockwise.

[jadnashua]

Which way does your toilet flush rotate? Unless desiged with a jet, CW in the northern hemisphere, and CCW in the southern.

High pressure air masses rotate clockwise as the air moves from H-L...low pressure masses rotate counterclockwise as air moves in towards the center.

[jadnashua]

The salt line is the point where fresh water on land reaches salty water from the ocean. This varies based on the sea levels and the groundwater that adjusts based on the seasons and precipitation. So, seasonal changes are normal but the maximum intrusion is mapped in many areas

The water districts along the southern end of the Mississippi right now are in the news as salt intrudes further north. The latest prediction feels that New Orleans may miss biting the bullet this year, but it is going to be close.

In Miami, the salt line is moving inland at an average of 330 feet per year. Increased pumping of groundwater and drought are believed to be the cause. This is becoming a problem for more and more coastal areas. One of the reasons for the building collapse in Miami was rusting rebar in the building's foundation.

The rising ocean levels from melting ice and thermal expansion seems like this progression is likely to continue and impact more and more areas.

[jadnashua]

While it appears that New Orleans may skate by with the salt water intrusion this year pushing up the Mississippi River, that doesn't mean it's not a problem.

When municipal water supplies started in the 1800's and as late as the 1950's, many places used lead supply pipes...lead was common, cheap, and malleable, so it could be bent around without needing too many fittings. Over time, a coating usually deposits on the lead, so it doesn't leach into the water, but it all depends on carefully managing the pH and reactivity of the water running through. It is estimated that there are still millions of miles of lead pipes in service, many of them from the curb into homes. As was exhibited in MI with their water issues, lead poisoning is a problem if things aren't managed well, and it's much better to replace the stuff. There is no cure for lead poisoning...once it gets into your body, it stays there. Continued exposure, just makes it worse.

Throwing salt into the water supply disrupts the water chemistry, so lead becomes a forefront issue, worse than it was previously. As the ocean levels rise through heating (expansion) and glacial melting, more and more salt migration issues will poke their heads up, and the lead water pipes are just an offshoot of the problems it can create.

If your town still has some lead pipes, or you do coming into yours (built before about mid-century 1900), you might want to check it once in a while for lead. As I said, there's no cure for lead poisoning...whatever gets into your system stays there, so the goal should be none, and especially for a young person.

[jadnashua]

Much of the west has been in the news for their water issues in the past years. Some atmospheric rivers this year (a natural, but sporadic phenomenon) helped as might El Niño. But, similar to what southern Louisiana is dealing with with salt intrusion, much of California may have to contend with. The Sacramento River's delta, flowing into San Francisco Bay, feeds LA much of its water through an aqueduct. The flow is not always adequate and they are proposing pulling water further upstream to avoid the salt intrusion in the delta. This, in turn, could put numerous other places subject to the same salt problems. It also could disrupt the efforts to restore the native salmon runs. Water is gold in many parts of the western US. It seems there are maybe too many people and too much reliance on that water for crops as well. Not an easy problem to solve.

[jadnashua]

The Amazon River is at its lowest recorded point since records were started about 120-years ago. Cutting down the jungle to graze cattle along with the higher temperatures is changing the entire Amazon ecosystem. One study showed that with the jungle intact, water cycled through about five iterations...the rain nourished the trees and undergrowth, transpiration added some back into the atmosphere, that caused rain downwind, and this cycle tended to continue through those five times...without the mass of trees and undergrowth, that cycle was cut short. The grasslands then used for cattle grazing allowed the area to get hotter, which holds more moisture, which meant it took more to trigger the next rainstorm.

This is not the only area that has experienced drought and the resulting loss of crops...read up on what happened in India and Spain, and other areas this past year, not counting the over 90% of the ocean's surface that has experience a heat wave (with surface waters off southern Florida over 100F).

[jadnashua]

Chum salmon have been moving further north as areas warm. The Arctic is warming considerably faster than areas further south as loss of snow and ice cover. What is new is that a small portion are now using the rivers further north to spawn. Whether they will survive and later return will be monitored. When salmon spawn, they dig out a depression in the riverbed but some of their eggs float away, providing food for the native fish in that sparse environment. If any hatch and survive they are prey as well. Time will tell if this migration is successful and how it further changes the environment.

The oceans are changing.

[jadnashua]

In 'normal' times, 34-36 ships a day can pass through the locks of the Panama Canal. To prevent the transit lake from becoming so shallow that nothing can get across, they've reduced the maximum draft of the passing ships requiring them to carry fewer containers, and reduced the number of ships able to cross through. El Niño tends to lessen the rainfall in that part of the world, so if things go as predicted, by February, the number of ships able to pass through the canal daily may end up being cut to half, or about 18. Some ships are paying a premium to move them ahead of others and thus increasing their transit costs, as much as $2M, and passing the costs onto consumers. A very significant amount of the traffic through the canal is for the benefit of US customers, so that directly adds to the costs of goods. It's estimated that US companies pay about $270B per year in shipping costs through the canal, not counting the added costs of delays or premiums to speed the process.

Panama is working to reroute water from additional lakes and rivers to keep this economic lifeline operational, but the costs are immense, the timeline is long, and the environmental impacts are not looking good. Those lakes and rivers provide fresh water to much of the local population, and dumping it into the locks directs it quickly into the oceans on either side where it can't be used for irrigation, other industry, or drinking.

[cx]

I bet that's got some US trucking and railroad companies salivating. I wonder how much that two-million dollars would buy in offloading at a Gulf Coast port, loading on trucks or rail cars (are there railroads in Galvaston and Houston?) transporting to the Left Coast and unloading again. I'm sure somebody's put a pencil to it by now. I don't notice a lot more container trucks on I-10, but........