Weather

[jadnashua]

The reservoirs feeding CA and most of the west are still at very low levels. You have to look at trends, not shorter-term results. Vegas was built up over water and power from the nearby dam, and both are at severe risk. https://drought.ca.gov/current-droug...6ef23cc55cf8dc

Snowpack in CA is at 38% as of April 1 from the 'norm' and the first three month of the year were at the lowest amount of precipitation in 100-years. The early snowpack from the beginning of the season mostly melted way ahead of normal.

Extreme weather situations are one result of climate change. Some places aren't getting rain, while others are getting flooded. NYC had some people in basement apartments die from flooding from a VERY heavy rainstorm. First time that's happened in the history of NYC.

[Davy]

Here is an interesting video that's kind of related.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi-W5hcRN4E

[jerrymlr1]

Originally Posted by Jim

Some places aren't getting rain, while others are getting flooded

That's called normal Jim.

Extreme weather situations are one result of climate change

Extreme weather situations have been around for millennia. Nothing new.

[Maniac979]

jerrymlr1

You sir need to up your Kool-Aid consumption.

[Mathman]

Frequency and severity are keywords to understanding.

[jadnashua]

When was the last time California was this dry and the reservoirs were nearly empty?

When was the last time since they've been looking (many years) have they seen rain on the upper glaciers in Greenland?

When was the last time the ice coverage in a good portion of the Arctic had disappeared, or was as thin as it is now?

When was the last time it rained so hard people died in flooding in NYC, or how about what happened in Germany?

Read up on the open patches of rock on the top of Mt Everest where all we've ever known was glacier, and from analyzing the remaining ice cores, the fact that the ice that is left is ancient and essentially no new ice is sticking around. Those mountains are the source of numerous rivers that feed billions of people in India and China.

Or, how the growing season is now starting a couple of weeks earlier as the last killing frost has moved earlier in spring, or the range of tropical insects and their attendant diseases is expanding northward. Lyme disease is getting worse as the winter freeze is not killing off the majority of the ticks, so it doesn't have to spread further from the south back north once it warms back up after winter.

Yes, climate changes, but historically, at least from what we can discern, has NEVER been happening as fast as it is now except for a blip after a major series of volcanic eruptions that put huge amounts of dust and gasses into the atmosphere. Those can change things for a couple of years, but then, things went back to what was the norm, not this extended progression we are seeing now that is accelerating.

Don't confuse weather with climate. But, more frequent and more severe weather events are also tied into the trends. A tropical storm requires heat, and the oceans are getting hotter, fueling more frequent, and in some cases, more severe storms.

Warmer temperatures means the air can hold more water, which is how a storm can become more severe. That assumes there's any moisture IN the air in the first place. That heat also means the ground dries out faster. California is considering covering some of their aquaducts with solar panels to both produce electricity, but as important, shade the surface of the water to help limit evaporation. https://abcnews.go.com/US/water-shor...5306a2e14edacb

[jerrymlr1]

Ruh Roh..... Everything was looking ok til I talked to Rich yesterday. Then he puts a hex on this thing and now here we are.

[cx]

Mmmmm, lemme see...... Counter clockwise weather event thingee approaching left coast, so that means too many people onna right coast were charging their 'lectric cars at the same time. Or do I have that backwards. Again.

[John Bridge]

Floridians love Hurricanes. Can't get enough of them. They're even robbing us Texans of our hurricanes. Hogging all the action, they are.

[Autoplay]

FYI Jerry….. I put multiple voodoo dolls in various areas of Sarasota,along with magical chicken bones! As most saw,it was coming straight for us,and took a turn,about 60 miles south of us/Sarasota(kinda like Charley) in 05 07?

I was beyond blessed,in regards to damage etc. The destruction down south,and if I used the ‘F” word to describe it,would be putting it mildly. Mind boggling to see it in the real. I drove 20 miles south,to about Englewood,and couldn’t go much further south on account of flooding and road debris etc. Upside down planes and RVs I saw. Can only imagine the horror,40 miles south of that.

Gas and food presently a valuable commodity. I have plenty of gas,and if this lasts over a week,I’ll rob my boat of its gas.

Glad you and yours Jerry,survived,and with minimal prop damage. As we were beyond blessed,we are obligated to pray etc for the unfortunate peeps/pets etc,that are currently dealing with tough times.

Lastly,welcome to the new “normal”

[cx]

Indeed, the wretched Floridians deprived us of even a single hurricane this year, with an associated lack of rainfall further inland, resulting in an extension of our drought into the throes of winter. But that's not what I came to complain about:

Since about 14:00 this afternoon, when it was north of 73 degrees outside, the temperature has plummeted some 30 degrees and is still dropping. I suspect these degrees are also somehow being pirated by the same Floridians. I expect that as soon as the temperature dips below 40 degrees, Texas will have no alternative but to declare war on Florida!

Just wanted everyone to know that it's nothing personal.

[smifwal]

Thought these were good for a laugh

[jadnashua]

A hurricane needs heat to generate, and the speed with which it increases intensity depends on how hot the water is. Historically, the buildup was fairly slow. In Ian, it went from a storm to a hurricane in hours because the waters were so literally hot. You can ignore all of that if you wish, but it doesn't change things.

Scientists have been studying things and the tools to observe and analyze stuff have been changing and becoming more precise. The more we know, the more we (should) know we don't know. But what we do know is that the oceans are hotter, and the glaciers are melting faster than we thought and from different means. The ocean levels are rising now faster than ever. What we didn't know before was that the friction of the glaciers moving in Antarctica is creating enough heat to melt them from the underside - we thought they were solid underneath but are actually being lubricated by the melting ice. Greenland is melting from the top as rain hits it, but is likely melting from the bottom as well, which had not been realized. Plus, the friction of the water falling through crevasses in them is heating the water which is causing more melting from within which we also didn't realize until recently. We're learning more every day, and if you keep up, you'd realize it's not looking good. You can put your head in the sand, but that doesn't change things. What we know today changes what was thought to be true even a few months ago, so it's easy to be out of date.

What we thought we knew was that the glaciers in eastern Antarctica were stable. Recently, through ground penetrating radar studies, we've found that they are melting from underneath...lots of melting.

Thwaite's glacier is prevented from freely flowing because it is stuck on an undersea ledge. What we didn't know is that the tides were lifting the ice pack up, allowing the warmer ocean water to penetrate below (from recent underwater surveillance) and penetrating MUCH further beneath that ice sheet. New satellites with increased resolution enabled us to view that rise and fall. We didn't have those tools until recently, so we never knew. The current estimate is that that floating ice sheet might break up in as little as 5-years, unleashing the stopper that is preventing that glacier from moving faster out into the ocean. That alone, could raise the levels 2' across the world within a few decades...many cities along the coast would be in a world of hurt if that actually happened.

We've done ice cores in Antarctica that consist of history for 600K years...the CO2 levels are higher now than any previous period in that historical record, and have risen faster than any previous period. That study is also recent, it took a few years to analyze it all. It takes time for things to adjust, evolution being the way it is...things are changing fast. Fish are moving. Stuff is now being seen way further north than their previous ranges. Lobsters are moving into deeper water and north. Coral reefs are bleaching, and they are the nursery for the oceans. The snow crab season was recently canceled for two years in Alaska because the population is devastated. They think they've moved further north, but are not sure. The young ones use the normally saltier water where they can survive because lots of their prey don't like it, but the salt levels are being diluted with all of the freshwater melt, so the young ones are getting eaten before they can mature and fend for themselves.

Growing seasons are now at least a few weeks longer, and the bird migrations that have depended on various things ready to eat when they got along their path have already peaked...leaving them without their expected food. It takes time to adapt, and things are changing fast.

Our knowledge base is increasing rapidly and what is being uncovered is disturbing, but many people are either ignoring it, or uninformed. The models we had are missing information from these new discoveries and are being updated constantly. What you might have heard even a short time ago may no longer be true. Weather changes rapidly, but climate is the trend. You can't judge climate change on the weather, as that will always have peaks and valleys. CO2 is rising year to year. Ocean temperatures are rising year to year.

Maybe what we need is a monster volcanic eruption somewhere to put enough crud into the atmosphere to drop the average solar, but historically, that only lasts a few years before things return to normal. Tonga, earlier this year might have been the start of one, but it stopped too quickly. Today's earthquake in that area might portend a new eruption, but time will tell. The last one threw dust up 57Km. Nothing new, yet.

Look at the high temperature records that were broken this year across not only the US, but the world...more and more each year. Not only the extremes, but the averages.

FWIW, Nicole was the latest hurricane to hit the eastern Florida coast EVER. Later ones have come in from the Gulf, but not the Atlantic...that might tell you something.

[Davy]

Cars get a lot of attention but are they the real problem? This is interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sytWLB4-W-M

[jadnashua]

Think of it like the chicken or egg issue...ICE vehicles burn fossil fuels, and producing them, the drilling, refining, shipping all produce CO2.

But, to produce electricity, until we get rid of fossil fuels like coal, oil, natural gas to run our electrical generation plants, while those tend to be more efficient than an ICE, they still produce a very significant amount of what is emitted. Making cement is nasty producer of CO2 as does smelting iron.

More and more power is being produced with green sources of energy and it is now less expensive to use solar cells than it is to build a new NG powered power plant.

Think about it as low hanging fruit...we can help remove some CO2 from being reduced, especially for those that might have installed solar cells on their homes. Note, most of the Tesla charging stations augment their power with solar cells.

Most current EVs are charged overnight at home. The fast charging network is primarily used for those taking longer trips. So, when you look at the power usage cycles, power use peaks late afternoon and evening as people come home, do laundry, cook supper, and turn their a/c's on. To handle that peak load, currently we have significant over supply for the rest of the day. Well, it's easy to shift EV charging to off-peak times, and many utilities in the US now offer special rates for people that do that, and some offer charging devices (EVSE) that can be controlled by them to avoid charging at that peak time. Vehicles are also starting to be designed to do V2G (vehicle-to-grid) capabilities...this lets a plugged in vehicle to actually put power back into the grid at times of heavy usage, meaning that those peaker power plants would no longer be necessary.

We need to work on all sources.

There has been work on ocean current power plants. A couple of plants are in use to help to figure out the best way. There are numerous energy storage technologies being worked. Wind, solar, and new nuclear are being planned. FWIW, the UK has lately been producing more of their power from wind and solar than fossil fuel.

There are some new design nuclear plants that may start to show up that are much safer, smaller, and cheaper.

So, where do you start? EVs, especially with V2G that will be common by the time their volume comes up enough to be a problem and greener sources and storage will be useful and result in an overall improvement.

If we end up with excess energy at some times of the day, 'storing' it as green hydrogen offers an alternative to using and charging batteries in vehicles and to use fuel cells. Building that infrastructure is a problem, but solvable.

There are more items in the solution, but as I said, you have to start somewhere. There's some prototype container ships that have sails to help them become greener. You have to think creatively and widespread. The problem is we can't keep doing things the same way and expect different results. Green energy and EVs are the low-hanging fruit.