Thread: Investing
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Old 08-03-2011, 09:09 AM   #41
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Boerne, Texas
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Originally Posted by Jim
Back in 2002, when gold was around $275, after it had done nothing for 20 years, he predicted gold would run to $1650 in 2011. Gold closed above 1650 yesterday, for the first time ever.
Only problem I have with that sorta prediction reliability is not having any idea upon what the guy might have been basing his prediction. Knowing, in hindsight, of course, some of the rather bizarre and unpredictable things that happened in the political and financial arenas during that period, one might find it rather easy to credit his success to Blind Squirrel/Acorn syndrome.

Last time I considered buying gold bullion it was trading at about $285. I didn't buy at that price. I would have done well, of course, to listen to your fella, but I didn't know your fella from alla other "experts," many of whom thought gold was actually pretty high at that price. Makes you wonder if his coin toss was just better or if he actually knew some things the others didn't, eh?

Well can I recall back in 1980 when gold hit $800 and some experts were predicting $3,000. A few thought it would go back down where it more reasonably belonged. Nobody gave much credit to the correct forecasters of the change when it got back down about $200, as I recall, but they were correct and their forecast accurate.

Dunno. My personal prediction is that gold will go either up or down. But that's just a guess.

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